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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 15 September 16
INDONESIA MAY FACE A COAL CRISIS BY 2035!
COALspot.com: Indonesia is the world’s fourth-largest coal producer and the world’s largest thermal coal exporter may face a coal crisi ...
Thursday, 15 September 16
CAPESIZE: LAST WEEK ENDED ON A VERY STRONG NOTE MAINLY DRIVEN BY A ACTIVE BRAZIL MARKET - FEARNLYS
Supramax
With holidays in the eastern hemisphere beginning this week, the sentiment and activity level has been decreasing.
In the Pacific, ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET REACHED LEVELS LAST SEEN BACK IN 2015 - INTERMODAL
In an earlier column we commented that we are undergoing “shipping’s new (ab)normal” with constrained financing, shift in demand ...
Wednesday, 14 September 16
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.48 MMT OF COAL IN AUGUST; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE WAS $AU 83.33
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU $1,040.4 ...
Tuesday, 13 September 16
CAPESIZE: BIG STRENGTH SEEN IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize - Big strength seen in the market this week, with an upbeat in sentiment amongst owners helping pull up rates fairly quickly and many hold ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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