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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 07 October 16
INDONESIA'S DEMAND FOR COAL REMAINS STRONG: BP
Indonesia's domestic demand for coal shows no sign of slowing down as the country is banking on its coal abundance to meet the country' ...
Friday, 07 October 16
CEYLON SHIPPING CORPORATION HAS TAKEN DELIVERY OF COAL CARRIER MV.CEYLON PRINCESS
Sri Lanka’s Ceylon Shipping Corporation (CSC) has taken delivery of its second newly built bulk carrier for the transportation of coal to pow ...
Friday, 07 October 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALLED AN ESTIMATED 540.5 MMST; DOWN 21.9% Y-O-Y, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 06 October 16
SHIPS IN PACIFIC ACHIEVE JUST ABOVE $10K DAILY FOR A BRAZIL ROUND VOYAGE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slower week with limited activity due to holidays in the East. Mixed feelings within different markets, with slight downturn in Pacific ...
Wednesday, 05 October 16
OPEC TO SHUT OFF MORE THAN 6 PERCENT OF ITS PRODUCTION; MIXED FEELING AMONGST TRADERS - ALLIED
OPEC recent accord to shut off more than 6 percent of its production this past week has been met with mixed feeling amongst traders. As we mo ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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