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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 12 October 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
Another Monday has gone by, bringing with it further turbulence for oil. A series of meetings between high-production nations Russia & Saudi Ar ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
INDIAN STEELMAKERS' DELEVERAGING AT RISK ON COKING COAL PRICE JUMP - FITCH
The sharp increase in coking coal prices since August 2016 could squeeze Indian steelmakers' profitability and threaten their deleveraging, Fit ...
Wednesday, 12 October 16
UK SEABORNE COAL IMPORT PLUNGES 64% AS A WORRYING TREND LURKS - BIMCO
The main exporters of thermal coal for coal- fired power plants to the United Kingdom (UK) have experienced a heavy decline in seaborne cargo volum ...
Monday, 10 October 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HITS HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE SEPTEMBER 2014
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal benchmark price hits to its highest level since September 2014. The government declared benchmark prices for Indon ...
Monday, 10 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET FIRMS UP ON STRONG CAPE PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose again and ending in a positive note this past week. ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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