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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 18 October 16
COAL PRICES KEPT CLIMBING
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Tuesday, 18 October 16
PANAMAX: A FAIRLY POSITIVE END TO THE WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Things seemed to be moving sideways during the first half of the week, with resistance being felt as owners tried to resist any further ...
Monday, 17 October 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS SOFTENED IN ALL SEGMENTS THIS PAST WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 14 October 16
SUPRAMAXES: DELIVERY SINGAPORE ARE SETTLING AROUND HIGH 6K'S FOR COAL TRIPS TO CHINA VIA INDO - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Wait and see attitude prevailing all over the market.
There have been several fresh cargoes, which have been efficiently covered by ...
Friday, 14 October 16
U.S. SHIPPED 3.3 MMST COAL IN JULY 2016; DECLINE 40% M/M
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.6 million short ton ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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