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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 05 October 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
On September 27th the OPEC petroleum and energy ministers arrived in Algeria to attend the International Energy Forum, which brought together produ ...
Monday, 03 October 16
THERMAL COAL PRICE SHOOTS UP AND MADE THEIR VERTICAL MOVE IN 5 YEARS; PRICE RALLY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: A rally in thermal coal prices over the past few months, after years of decline, is still continuing and it is expected to rally at l ...
Monday, 03 October 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING FREIGHTS SLIDE IN SOFTENING SPOT MARKET
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline slightly and ending in a negative note this past ...
Friday, 30 September 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 2.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Friday, 30 September 16
OPEC CUT SUPPORTS SLOW OIL RECOVERY, NOT STRONG REBOUND - FITCH
OPEC's oil production target announced this week signals the potential for greater co-ordination among its members, but the target itself is la ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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