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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 14 December 16
INTERNATIONAL TRIBUNAL DISMISSED CHURCHILL MINING'S DAMAGES CLAIM AGAINST REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA
The Directors of Churchill Mining plc advise that, the ICSID Tribunal (“Tribunal”) granted Indonesia’s application to dismiss the ...
Wednesday, 14 December 16
20/20 VISION! - JOHN N. COTZIAS
2020; A year that could be changing shipping. In early November, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced that it would set a 0.5% s ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET MAY WELL BE SHOWING SIGNS OF HEADING FOR ITS DOWNWARD CORRECTIVE PHASE - ALLIED
2016 has been a tough market for dry bulkers and through these difficult earnings, we have seen some of the lowest prices being noted historically ...
Tuesday, 13 December 16
COAL DEMAND GROWTH TO STALL AS APPETITE WANES, ACCORDING TO IEA
Growth in global coal demand will stall over the next five years as the appetite for the fuel wanes and other energy sources gain ground, according ...
Monday, 12 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 16.3 MMST, UP 7.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.3 million short ton ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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