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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 12 December 16
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this past week and ending on a negative note week ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
STABLE OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL MINING IN 2017 : FITCH
Fitch Ratings' sector and rating outlooks for the global mining industry in 2017 are both stable, reflecting Fitch's view that prices have ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
CHINESE COAL DEMAND WOULD BE THE KEY FACTOR THAT INFLUENCE WORLD COAL PRICES IN 2017, POLL
“WHAT ARE THE KEY FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE WORLD'S COAL PRICES IN 2017?”
The on-line opinion poll conducted by COALspot.com ...
Thursday, 08 December 16
PANAMAX: THE FIRM TENDENCY CONTINUES IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Market remained firm - true mostly within Atlantic.
Star performer USG remained its title, where Supras reached around USD 21k ...
Wednesday, 07 December 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODOROS NTALAKOS
Looking back at my previous end-of-year insights, for the last seven years, in each and every one of them, I begin with something like “there ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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