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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 20 December 16
TRADE HAS FELT ITS BUMPS AND SHAKES THIS YEAR - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Trade has felt its bumps and shakes this year, as growing populist protectionist and nationalist movements in the Western world start to take hold. ...
Tuesday, 20 December 16
TURNAROUND IN CHINESE ECONOMY HAS INTENSIFIED RECENTLY, SAYS COMMODORE RESEARCH
According to the most recent Weekly China Report published by Commodore Research, it has remained encouraging that the turnaround in China’s ...
Monday, 19 December 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 3.1% PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.8 million short ton ...
Monday, 19 December 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUING TO SOFTEN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continually decline this past week and ending on a negati ...
Thursday, 15 December 16
SUPRAMAXES ARE ACHIEVING AROUND HIGH USD 7K FOR INDO/CHINA COAL ROUNDS - FEARNLEY
Supramax
Pacific has been relatively quiet this week, with some softening signs.
Supramaxes are achieving around high USD 7k for Indo/China ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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