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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 26 December 16
DO THE DERIVATIVES MARKETS MAKE COAL PRICES MORE VOLATILE? 59.21% SAY YES, POLL
COALspot.com: The substantial increase or decrease in coal prices within a short period of time has been supported by a number of fundamental drive ...
Friday, 23 December 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 711.1 MMST; DOWN 18.5% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 22 December 16
INDONESIA LACK OF EXPORT TO INDIA THIS WEEK - FERNLEYS
Supramax
While the Atlantic is keeping up with rates, the Pacific has been weaker says Astrup Fernley.
According to Astrup Fernley, backhaul ...
Wednesday, 21 December 16
THE SUPREME COURT DECISION IN OW BUNKERS - WHEN A SALE OF GOODS IS NOT A SALE OF GOODS - LEON ALEXANDER, CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In May 2016 the Supreme Court of England & Wales gave judgment in an OW Bunkers test case entitled "Res Cogitans ...
Wednesday, 21 December 16
CLEANING THE OCEANS FROM PLASTIC - SOPHIE COTZIAS
2016 is coming to a close and it finds us in preparation for the 2017 enforcement of the Ballast Water Treatment Systems. We naturally are in thoug ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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