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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 01 March 16
CAN BULKCARRIER SUPPLY CUTS RESTORE SOME BALANCE? - CLARKSONS
The easing in bulkcarrier deliveries and the accelerated pace of demolition in recent years has seen bulkcarrier fleet growth slow from a rapid 17% ...
Monday, 29 February 16
BALTIC INDEX INCHES UP THIS PAST WEEK AS SMALLER VESSELS LEND SUPPORT
COALspot.com: The freight markets rose slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of global ...
Monday, 29 February 16
LOSS OF EARNINGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLLISION - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A shipowner’s loss of earnings can form a significant part of a collision claim. Awareness of the ways of calculati ...
Friday, 26 February 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 25 February 16
DRY BULKERS ARE SCRAPPED AT RECORD PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The newbuilding market is at a lull these days, as ship owners are focusing on two fronts, getting rid of excess dry bulk tonnage and snapping up b ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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