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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 01 March 16
CAN BULKCARRIER SUPPLY CUTS RESTORE SOME BALANCE? - CLARKSONS
The easing in bulkcarrier deliveries and the accelerated pace of demolition in recent years has seen bulkcarrier fleet growth slow from a rapid 17% ...
Monday, 29 February 16
BALTIC INDEX INCHES UP THIS PAST WEEK AS SMALLER VESSELS LEND SUPPORT
COALspot.com: The freight markets rose slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of global ...
Monday, 29 February 16
LOSS OF EARNINGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLLISION - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A shipowner’s loss of earnings can form a significant part of a collision claim. Awareness of the ways of calculati ...
Friday, 26 February 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 25 February 16
DRY BULKERS ARE SCRAPPED AT RECORD PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The newbuilding market is at a lull these days, as ship owners are focusing on two fronts, getting rid of excess dry bulk tonnage and snapping up b ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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