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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 07 March 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX DECLINE $0.05 A TON WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $38.66 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 07 March 16
FREIGHT MARKET MOVING POSITIVE; ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT CAPE SHOWING A FIRM TREND
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady this past week and showing a firm trend for all segments except for Cape index.
The Baltic Dry Ind ...
Friday, 04 March 16
GLOBAL ECONOMY'S JITTERS ARE SLOWING DOWN SHIPPING EVEN FURTHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The global economy’s shaky condition to say the least is now hampering growth and as a result demand for shipping is slowing down, something ...
Friday, 04 March 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 109.3 MMST; 30.2% LOWER THAN THE COMPARABLE YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION IN 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 03 March 16
INDIA'S BUDGET NOT ENOUGH TO BOOST STEELMAKERS' PROFITABILITY - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that increase in proposed infrastructure spending in India's latest government budget is unlikely to provide a ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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