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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 07 March 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX DECLINE $0.05 A TON WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $38.66 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 07 March 16
FREIGHT MARKET MOVING POSITIVE; ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT CAPE SHOWING A FIRM TREND
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady this past week and showing a firm trend for all segments except for Cape index.
The Baltic Dry Ind ...
Friday, 04 March 16
GLOBAL ECONOMY'S JITTERS ARE SLOWING DOWN SHIPPING EVEN FURTHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The global economy’s shaky condition to say the least is now hampering growth and as a result demand for shipping is slowing down, something ...
Friday, 04 March 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 109.3 MMST; 30.2% LOWER THAN THE COMPARABLE YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION IN 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 03 March 16
INDIA'S BUDGET NOT ENOUGH TO BOOST STEELMAKERS' PROFITABILITY - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that increase in proposed infrastructure spending in India's latest government budget is unlikely to provide a ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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