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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 11 March 16
ADANI GLOBAL BAGS 0.26 MILLION TONS OF COAL CONTRACT FROM LANKA COAL COMPANY
COALspot.com: Lanka Coal Company (Private) Limited, Sri Lanka has awarded 260,000 +/- 10% tons of Power plant 6300 GAR calorific value coal to Adan ...
Friday, 11 March 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN BY 0.5 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.6 million shor ...
Friday, 11 March 16
FORTESCUE'S MOU WITH VALE COULD STRENGTHEN ITS BUSINESS PROFILE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that Australia-based Fortescue Metals Group Limited's (BB+/Negative) memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Br ...
Thursday, 10 March 16
CHINA'S NEW POLICY PLAN COULD BE POSITIVE FOR SHIPPING, BUT TARGETS SEEM RATHER AMBITIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China set out its new policy plan during the course of the past weekend, but it seems to have set some very ambitious goals, which could be difficu ...
Thursday, 10 March 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 23% IN 2015, AS COAL IMPORTS REMAINED STEADY
COALspot.com: The United States remains a net exporter of coal, exporting 74.0 million short tons (MMst) and importing 11 MMst in 2015.
Accord ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
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