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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 10 March 16
IT FEELS SAFE TO SAY THAT THE MARKET IS SLOWLY AND PAINFULLY REGAINING ITS BALANCE
With the BDI marking its third consecutive positive weekly closing, it feels safe to say that the market is regaining its balance; slowly and painf ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 24% (74 MMST) IN 2015; COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 111 MMST IN 2016 - EIA
U.S. Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production for February 2016 was 54 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (7%) decrease from the prev ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
RI MAY HAVE TO IMPORT COAL FOR FUTURE POWER PLANTS: STUDY - THE JAKARTA POST
With coal prices continuing to decline, Indonesia will struggle to provide the coal needed to fire up its power stations in the near future, a stud ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
INDONESIA HIKES COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 12 MONTHS
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016, but up slightly in Mar ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
THE DRY CARGO MARKET ENDURED ONE OF ITS MOST DIFFICULT YEARS IN 2015, EXPERIENCING LOWS NOT SEEN SINCE THE MID 1980S - CLARKSONS
Whilst shipping and offshore markets have seen some good opportunities during 2015, overall there have been unprecedented challenges, so we are ver ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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