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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 10 March 16
IT FEELS SAFE TO SAY THAT THE MARKET IS SLOWLY AND PAINFULLY REGAINING ITS BALANCE
With the BDI marking its third consecutive positive weekly closing, it feels safe to say that the market is regaining its balance; slowly and painf ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 24% (74 MMST) IN 2015; COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 111 MMST IN 2016 - EIA
U.S. Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production for February 2016 was 54 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (7%) decrease from the prev ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
RI MAY HAVE TO IMPORT COAL FOR FUTURE POWER PLANTS: STUDY - THE JAKARTA POST
With coal prices continuing to decline, Indonesia will struggle to provide the coal needed to fire up its power stations in the near future, a stud ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
INDONESIA HIKES COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 12 MONTHS
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016, but up slightly in Mar ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
THE DRY CARGO MARKET ENDURED ONE OF ITS MOST DIFFICULT YEARS IN 2015, EXPERIENCING LOWS NOT SEEN SINCE THE MID 1980S - CLARKSONS
Whilst shipping and offshore markets have seen some good opportunities during 2015, overall there have been unprecedented challenges, so we are ver ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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