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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 24 February 16
HOW IS THE FUEL MIX FOR U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION CHANGING? - EIA
In recent years, there have been changes in the mix of fuels used to generate electricity in the United States. Natural gas and renewable energy so ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS LOOKING TO EXIT SHIPPING, MOST NOTABLY DRY BULK, AS OVERORDERING HAS RESULTED IN EXCESS TONNAGE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The injection of more than $13 billion in shipping from various private equity funds over the past few years has resulted in what many feared would ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
THIRTEEN - NOT ALWAYS AN UNLUCKY NUMBER? - CLARKSONS
Back in early 1999 the price of a 5 year old Panamax bulkcarrier dipped to $13.5m, and ever since analysts have hailed purchase decisions made at t ...
Monday, 22 February 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX SETTLES AT $27.02, DOWN 0.07% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.17 percent week over week to averaging $38.89 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 22 February 16
FREIGHT MARKETS PICKED UP SLIGHTLY THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight markets picked up slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of gl ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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