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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 19 February 16
INDONESIAN HBA HITS A NEW LOWS BELOW $51 A TON AS OVERSUPPLY, LOW DEMAND WOES PERSIST
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016. HBA has slumped second time t ...
Friday, 19 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 2.6% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.2 million shor ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
INDIA NEEDS INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT ON HIGH EFFICIENCY COAL - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
Speaking at a conference in New Delhi today, World Coal Association Chief Executive Benjamin Sporton said the critical role of coal in driving econ ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
CHINA COAL SECTOR - 2015 RESULTS BLEAK, 2016 UNLIKELY TO BE ANY BETTER - FITCH
COALspot.com: China Coal Sector’s Financial Woes to Worsen in 2016.
Fitch Ratings says that the 2015 full-year result previews issued by ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
PANAMAX RATES OUT OF ECSA WERE STILL GAINING A PREMIUM OVER THE REST OF THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The BDI moved further down last week, fact that hardly took anyone by surprise as the lunar year holidays in Asia on top of the already depre ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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