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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on asset prices and not on market conditions. Today, three months later and with fewer vessels in the market, buying appetite seems to be subdued but not extinguished.
We are witnessing buyers still willing to inspect and offer on modern vessels, while once more we witness strong preference to Japanese built tonnage. Market expectations may not have changed dramatically when compared to three months ago, but what appears to be different today is that shipowners are letting the sour feeling to finally sink in.
As these lines are written the festivities for the Chinese New Year are taking place and are bound to depress the market even more. A couple months down the line, the closing of the Japanese fiscal year coupled with all the scheduled deliveries, are expected to also help shape the dry bulk asset scene for the rest of the year.
Although it seems that the perfect storm is brewing in the dry sector, the future holds surprises and if there is one thing we‘ve learnt from market cycles, it’s that things don't always go as expected. For now we can only wait and hope that the Monkey – 2016 being its year - will give its blessing.
At the same time, moving on to tankers, the picture is rather blurry and unclear. It seems that the market is waiting for some sort of downward correction to take place, although the wishful thinking that earnings will stay at healthy levels is unsurprisingly in the mind of all market participants. As there is too much analysis and many predictions out there for oil prices as well as the effect that Iranian production entering the global stage will have, I will only focus on current assets prices.
The asset market is flooded with ships. Piles of MR, AFRAs and VLCCs are being stacked, ranging mostly from early to mid-2000. On average and at any given time there are more than 40 vessels for sale on every segment with Korean built tonnage dominating the lot.
Owners appear willing to dispose of tonnage the soonest it hits the 10 year mark. These ships still make money to their owners and even though they put the “for sale” sign on them, they don't seem to be willing to part ways easily. The average price a Seller is asking for a 10 year old MR1 built in Korea is around USD 18 million. To put things into prospective, one can buy 2 x Japanese Kamsarmaxes, a year younger, and be left with more than 3 million to burn on subsidizing them for the next couple of years. Of course the MR is making money compared to the Kamsarmaxes that are currently bleeding cash. Nonetheless this just sums up the contradiction.
Some might say that the current picture of the tanker market is rather similar to the picture of the Bulk Carrier market back in 2006 when the market had been rising for more than two years and in everybody's mind a decline was due. Again many rushed to sell. The rest is history.
Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to argue anything. The point is to remotely try and make sense of what is going on. History repeats its self but this is not always the case. One thing is certain though and this is that history has a strange sense of humor. In 2016 players will have to find the silver lining between a cheap investment and a cash flow that allows you to survive.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 19 February 16
INDONESIAN HBA HITS A NEW LOWS BELOW $51 A TON AS OVERSUPPLY, LOW DEMAND WOES PERSIST
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016. HBA has slumped second time t ...
Friday, 19 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 2.6% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.2 million shor ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
INDIA NEEDS INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT ON HIGH EFFICIENCY COAL - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
Speaking at a conference in New Delhi today, World Coal Association Chief Executive Benjamin Sporton said the critical role of coal in driving econ ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
CHINA COAL SECTOR - 2015 RESULTS BLEAK, 2016 UNLIKELY TO BE ANY BETTER - FITCH
COALspot.com: China Coal Sector’s Financial Woes to Worsen in 2016.
Fitch Ratings says that the 2015 full-year result previews issued by ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
PANAMAX RATES OUT OF ECSA WERE STILL GAINING A PREMIUM OVER THE REST OF THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The BDI moved further down last week, fact that hardly took anyone by surprise as the lunar year holidays in Asia on top of the already depre ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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