We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, and 0.2 percentage point below the forecasts in July 2015. Global activity is projected to gather some pace in 2016 with estimated growth being at 3.6 percent.
From the ship supply side there has been a notable effort to find a balance. While during 2014 the net fleet growth was about 5 percent, things definitely look much better in 2015. This January the dry bulk fleet was 9,396 vessels and on November 1st 2015, the vessel count was at 9,623; a fleet increase for the ten months of about 2.5percent. About 560 new buildings were delivered from the shipyards against 331 bulk carriers that have been taken for demolition to the scrap yards. Even though this is half of the fleet growth witnessed during 2014, it has not been enough to offset the drop in demand that we have experienced.
This year one of the main drivers of demand, or lack thereof, has been China's, the world's largest coal buyer, appetite for coal. The excess coal supply has weighed on prices, so for the first eight months of the year, coal imports were down 31 percent compared to last year. Lower coal prices made domestic coal more competitive and seaborne imports have been negatively affected. However, low prices also affected domestic producers many of whom decided to reduce their production to minimize losses. In this way, imports were re-balanced (which explains the freight rebound of July) but only until the seasonal demand peak has finished and foreign coal became even more expensive as a result of the Chinese currency devaluation, meaning that imports could decline further in the coming months.
Back on the supply side, let's go forward and try and take a view on 2016. What we must note first, is that back in January the dry bulk orderbook for 2015 only, was almost at 1,000 vessels and as mentioned we had about 560 deliveries in the ten months of the year. From experience, the 215 vessels that are supposed to be delivered in the remaining two months will, to a certain extent, be pushed into 2016. So, the supply weight is shifted into 2016 where the remaining of this year's and an additional 879 bulk carriers are currently scheduled for delivery. Taking a statistical average 20-30 percent of slippage/cancellations and assuming that about 350 vessels will go for demolition (there are more than 900 vessels of more than 20 years old), then we are looking at another 2.7-3.6 percent fleet growth; with global growth projected by IMF at 3.6 percent any balance will be marginal.
So, the key in 2016 is to at least match the projected growth rate, without any negative revisions. Developed economies will continue their recovery and although China's gradual slowdown will continue as expected, there is potential from emerging and developing economies such as Brazil, and some other countries in S. America, India, Russia and countries in the Middle East that may be weak but are expected to improve and eventually offset China's slowdown. (Note: All figures concern Dry Bulk vessels > 20,000dwt)
By Theodore Ntalakos
Newbuildings/SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dw ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
SELF-HEATING OF COAL HAS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF CHECKING THE ACCURACY OF SHIPPER'S DECLARATIONS - GARD
Recent incidents involving self-heating of coal has emphasised the importance of checking the accuracy of shipper’s declarations for all type ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIDES CONTINUE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.55 per ton (8.50%) month over month to US$ 38.20 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 09 November 15
BUNKER PRICES TO KEEP SLIDING THIS WEEK, EXPERT SAYS - MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE
The oil price volatility has continued this week. Two dollars up one day and the next day two dollars down. The oil market has been trading on the ...
Monday, 09 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 16 CONTRACT DECLINED US$ 4 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.35 (9.03 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
|
|
|
Showing 2721 to 2725 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
|
| |
| |
|
