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Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, and 0.2 percentage point below the forecasts in July 2015. Global activity is projected to gather some pace in 2016 with estimated growth being at 3.6 percent.
From the ship supply side there has been a notable effort to find a balance. While during 2014 the net fleet growth was about 5 percent, things definitely look much better in 2015. This January the dry bulk fleet was 9,396 vessels and on November 1st 2015, the vessel count was at 9,623; a fleet increase for the ten months of about 2.5percent. About 560 new buildings were delivered from the shipyards against 331 bulk carriers that have been taken for demolition to the scrap yards. Even though this is half of the fleet growth witnessed during 2014, it has not been enough to offset the drop in demand that we have experienced.
This year one of the main drivers of demand, or lack thereof, has been China's, the world's largest coal buyer, appetite for coal. The excess coal supply has weighed on prices, so for the first eight months of the year, coal imports were down 31 percent compared to last year. Lower coal prices made domestic coal more competitive and seaborne imports have been negatively affected. However, low prices also affected domestic producers many of whom decided to reduce their production to minimize losses. In this way, imports were re-balanced (which explains the freight rebound of July) but only until the seasonal demand peak has finished and foreign coal became even more expensive as a result of the Chinese currency devaluation, meaning that imports could decline further in the coming months.
Back on the supply side, let's go forward and try and take a view on 2016. What we must note first, is that back in January the dry bulk orderbook for 2015 only, was almost at 1,000 vessels and as mentioned we had about 560 deliveries in the ten months of the year. From experience, the 215 vessels that are supposed to be delivered in the remaining two months will, to a certain extent, be pushed into 2016. So, the supply weight is shifted into 2016 where the remaining of this year's and an additional 879 bulk carriers are currently scheduled for delivery. Taking a statistical average 20-30 percent of slippage/cancellations and assuming that about 350 vessels will go for demolition (there are more than 900 vessels of more than 20 years old), then we are looking at another 2.7-3.6 percent fleet growth; with global growth projected by IMF at 3.6 percent any balance will be marginal.
So, the key in 2016 is to at least match the projected growth rate, without any negative revisions. Developed economies will continue their recovery and although China's gradual slowdown will continue as expected, there is potential from emerging and developing economies such as Brazil, and some other countries in S. America, India, Russia and countries in the Middle East that may be weak but are expected to improve and eventually offset China's slowdown. (Note: All figures concern Dry Bulk vessels > 20,000dwt)
By Theodore Ntalakos
Newbuildings/SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 09 November 15
INDIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SURGED 18%; COKING COAL 6.31% DURING APRIL-OCTOBER: BUSINESS-STANDARD
Indian thermal coal imports surged 18% at the country's top 12 major ports to 55.90 million tonnes (MT) in the first seven months of the curren ...
Sunday, 08 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET KEEP DROPPING THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The freight market keep dropping this week.
The BDI down 12.48 percent week on week and closed at 631 points on 6 November 2015. ...
Sunday, 08 November 15
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES IN AUSTRALIA-CHINA ROUTES OVER 50% CHEAPER THAN BRAZIL-CHINA ROUTE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s mining and steel industries are facing tectonic shifts over the past couple of years, with the country’s limiting of coal use, ...
Friday, 06 November 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FELL SHARPLY FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 31
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 05 November 15
Q2'16 INDO THERMAL COAL SWAP CONTRACT FOB INDONESIA FALLS TO $39.90/T
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this past we ...
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Showing 2726 to 2730 news of total 6871 |
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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