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Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, and 0.2 percentage point below the forecasts in July 2015. Global activity is projected to gather some pace in 2016 with estimated growth being at 3.6 percent.
From the ship supply side there has been a notable effort to find a balance. While during 2014 the net fleet growth was about 5 percent, things definitely look much better in 2015. This January the dry bulk fleet was 9,396 vessels and on November 1st 2015, the vessel count was at 9,623; a fleet increase for the ten months of about 2.5percent. About 560 new buildings were delivered from the shipyards against 331 bulk carriers that have been taken for demolition to the scrap yards. Even though this is half of the fleet growth witnessed during 2014, it has not been enough to offset the drop in demand that we have experienced.
This year one of the main drivers of demand, or lack thereof, has been China's, the world's largest coal buyer, appetite for coal. The excess coal supply has weighed on prices, so for the first eight months of the year, coal imports were down 31 percent compared to last year. Lower coal prices made domestic coal more competitive and seaborne imports have been negatively affected. However, low prices also affected domestic producers many of whom decided to reduce their production to minimize losses. In this way, imports were re-balanced (which explains the freight rebound of July) but only until the seasonal demand peak has finished and foreign coal became even more expensive as a result of the Chinese currency devaluation, meaning that imports could decline further in the coming months.
Back on the supply side, let's go forward and try and take a view on 2016. What we must note first, is that back in January the dry bulk orderbook for 2015 only, was almost at 1,000 vessels and as mentioned we had about 560 deliveries in the ten months of the year. From experience, the 215 vessels that are supposed to be delivered in the remaining two months will, to a certain extent, be pushed into 2016. So, the supply weight is shifted into 2016 where the remaining of this year's and an additional 879 bulk carriers are currently scheduled for delivery. Taking a statistical average 20-30 percent of slippage/cancellations and assuming that about 350 vessels will go for demolition (there are more than 900 vessels of more than 20 years old), then we are looking at another 2.7-3.6 percent fleet growth; with global growth projected by IMF at 3.6 percent any balance will be marginal.
So, the key in 2016 is to at least match the projected growth rate, without any negative revisions. Developed economies will continue their recovery and although China's gradual slowdown will continue as expected, there is potential from emerging and developing economies such as Brazil, and some other countries in S. America, India, Russia and countries in the Middle East that may be weak but are expected to improve and eventually offset China's slowdown. (Note: All figures concern Dry Bulk vessels > 20,000dwt)
By Theodore Ntalakos
Newbuildings/SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 November 15
INFORMATION EXCHANGE GROUP'S LATAM MINING SECURITY SUMMIT 2016 - INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TECHNOLOGY SECURITY IN MINING
Press Release: LATAM Mining Security Summit 2016 is a carefully designed event that will bring together the leading stakeholders in the mining sect ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies con ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W AND M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was up US$ 1.4 ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
THE DISCHARGE OF CARGO IN THE PRC WITHOUT ORIGINAL BILLS OF LADING - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On occasions, a vessel may arrive at a port and be ready to discharge but the original bills of lading in respect of the ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery slid $1.84 per ton (4.34%) month over month to US$ 40.54 per ton. The swap ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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