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Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, and 0.2 percentage point below the forecasts in July 2015. Global activity is projected to gather some pace in 2016 with estimated growth being at 3.6 percent.
From the ship supply side there has been a notable effort to find a balance. While during 2014 the net fleet growth was about 5 percent, things definitely look much better in 2015. This January the dry bulk fleet was 9,396 vessels and on November 1st 2015, the vessel count was at 9,623; a fleet increase for the ten months of about 2.5percent. About 560 new buildings were delivered from the shipyards against 331 bulk carriers that have been taken for demolition to the scrap yards. Even though this is half of the fleet growth witnessed during 2014, it has not been enough to offset the drop in demand that we have experienced.
This year one of the main drivers of demand, or lack thereof, has been China's, the world's largest coal buyer, appetite for coal. The excess coal supply has weighed on prices, so for the first eight months of the year, coal imports were down 31 percent compared to last year. Lower coal prices made domestic coal more competitive and seaborne imports have been negatively affected. However, low prices also affected domestic producers many of whom decided to reduce their production to minimize losses. In this way, imports were re-balanced (which explains the freight rebound of July) but only until the seasonal demand peak has finished and foreign coal became even more expensive as a result of the Chinese currency devaluation, meaning that imports could decline further in the coming months.
Back on the supply side, let's go forward and try and take a view on 2016. What we must note first, is that back in January the dry bulk orderbook for 2015 only, was almost at 1,000 vessels and as mentioned we had about 560 deliveries in the ten months of the year. From experience, the 215 vessels that are supposed to be delivered in the remaining two months will, to a certain extent, be pushed into 2016. So, the supply weight is shifted into 2016 where the remaining of this year's and an additional 879 bulk carriers are currently scheduled for delivery. Taking a statistical average 20-30 percent of slippage/cancellations and assuming that about 350 vessels will go for demolition (there are more than 900 vessels of more than 20 years old), then we are looking at another 2.7-3.6 percent fleet growth; with global growth projected by IMF at 3.6 percent any balance will be marginal.
So, the key in 2016 is to at least match the projected growth rate, without any negative revisions. Developed economies will continue their recovery and although China's gradual slowdown will continue as expected, there is potential from emerging and developing economies such as Brazil, and some other countries in S. America, India, Russia and countries in the Middle East that may be weak but are expected to improve and eventually offset China's slowdown. (Note: All figures concern Dry Bulk vessels > 20,000dwt)
By Theodore Ntalakos
Newbuildings/SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 16 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.295 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q1 - Q2'16
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,295,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Monday, 16 November 15
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.05 (12.59%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of No ...
Monday, 16 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: Q1' 2016 SHAPING UP TO BE A ' DISASTROUS' ONE OF PROJECTED LOWER IRON ORE IMPORTS FROM CHINA
Over the course of the past year or so, it’s been the drop of coal imports from China, which has had a detrimental effect on the course of dr ...
Friday, 13 November 15
WEAK CHINA POWER DEMAND DAMPENS COAL CONSUMPTION - FITCH
The weak growth in China's electricity consumption in 2015, together with increasing non-thermal power generation capacity are exerting more pr ...
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Showing 2711 to 2715 news of total 6871 |
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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