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Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, and 0.2 percentage point below the forecasts in July 2015. Global activity is projected to gather some pace in 2016 with estimated growth being at 3.6 percent.
From the ship supply side there has been a notable effort to find a balance. While during 2014 the net fleet growth was about 5 percent, things definitely look much better in 2015. This January the dry bulk fleet was 9,396 vessels and on November 1st 2015, the vessel count was at 9,623; a fleet increase for the ten months of about 2.5percent. About 560 new buildings were delivered from the shipyards against 331 bulk carriers that have been taken for demolition to the scrap yards. Even though this is half of the fleet growth witnessed during 2014, it has not been enough to offset the drop in demand that we have experienced.
This year one of the main drivers of demand, or lack thereof, has been China's, the world's largest coal buyer, appetite for coal. The excess coal supply has weighed on prices, so for the first eight months of the year, coal imports were down 31 percent compared to last year. Lower coal prices made domestic coal more competitive and seaborne imports have been negatively affected. However, low prices also affected domestic producers many of whom decided to reduce their production to minimize losses. In this way, imports were re-balanced (which explains the freight rebound of July) but only until the seasonal demand peak has finished and foreign coal became even more expensive as a result of the Chinese currency devaluation, meaning that imports could decline further in the coming months.
Back on the supply side, let's go forward and try and take a view on 2016. What we must note first, is that back in January the dry bulk orderbook for 2015 only, was almost at 1,000 vessels and as mentioned we had about 560 deliveries in the ten months of the year. From experience, the 215 vessels that are supposed to be delivered in the remaining two months will, to a certain extent, be pushed into 2016. So, the supply weight is shifted into 2016 where the remaining of this year's and an additional 879 bulk carriers are currently scheduled for delivery. Taking a statistical average 20-30 percent of slippage/cancellations and assuming that about 350 vessels will go for demolition (there are more than 900 vessels of more than 20 years old), then we are looking at another 2.7-3.6 percent fleet growth; with global growth projected by IMF at 3.6 percent any balance will be marginal.
So, the key in 2016 is to at least match the projected growth rate, without any negative revisions. Developed economies will continue their recovery and although China's gradual slowdown will continue as expected, there is potential from emerging and developing economies such as Brazil, and some other countries in S. America, India, Russia and countries in the Middle East that may be weak but are expected to improve and eventually offset China's slowdown. (Note: All figures concern Dry Bulk vessels > 20,000dwt)
By Theodore Ntalakos
Newbuildings/SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN DULL NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down to historical lows closing at 498 points which is down by almost 95.77 per cent compared to 11,800 points in 2008.
...
Sunday, 22 November 15
INDIA COULD PROVIDE SILVER LINING FOR SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The rise of India as a global player in the shipping market could be just a couple of years away, as the country has the potential to become a seco ...
Friday, 20 November 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER '14; NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Friday, 20 November 15
NO IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN NEAR-TERM COAL DEMAND; SWAPS CLOSE LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and flat on week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this ...
Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the p ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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