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Wednesday, 18 November 15
MARKET (SHIPPING) INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Supply VS Demand
According to data from the IMF, global growth for 2015 is projected at 3.1 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than in 2014, and 0.2 percentage point below the forecasts in July 2015. Global activity is projected to gather some pace in 2016 with estimated growth being at 3.6 percent.
From the ship supply side there has been a notable effort to find a balance. While during 2014 the net fleet growth was about 5 percent, things definitely look much better in 2015. This January the dry bulk fleet was 9,396 vessels and on November 1st 2015, the vessel count was at 9,623; a fleet increase for the ten months of about 2.5percent. About 560 new buildings were delivered from the shipyards against 331 bulk carriers that have been taken for demolition to the scrap yards. Even though this is half of the fleet growth witnessed during 2014, it has not been enough to offset the drop in demand that we have experienced.
This year one of the main drivers of demand, or lack thereof, has been China's, the world's largest coal buyer, appetite for coal. The excess coal supply has weighed on prices, so for the first eight months of the year, coal imports were down 31 percent compared to last year. Lower coal prices made domestic coal more competitive and seaborne imports have been negatively affected. However, low prices also affected domestic producers many of whom decided to reduce their production to minimize losses. In this way, imports were re-balanced (which explains the freight rebound of July) but only until the seasonal demand peak has finished and foreign coal became even more expensive as a result of the Chinese currency devaluation, meaning that imports could decline further in the coming months.
Back on the supply side, let's go forward and try and take a view on 2016. What we must note first, is that back in January the dry bulk orderbook for 2015 only, was almost at 1,000 vessels and as mentioned we had about 560 deliveries in the ten months of the year. From experience, the 215 vessels that are supposed to be delivered in the remaining two months will, to a certain extent, be pushed into 2016. So, the supply weight is shifted into 2016 where the remaining of this year's and an additional 879 bulk carriers are currently scheduled for delivery. Taking a statistical average 20-30 percent of slippage/cancellations and assuming that about 350 vessels will go for demolition (there are more than 900 vessels of more than 20 years old), then we are looking at another 2.7-3.6 percent fleet growth; with global growth projected by IMF at 3.6 percent any balance will be marginal.
So, the key in 2016 is to at least match the projected growth rate, without any negative revisions. Developed economies will continue their recovery and although China's gradual slowdown will continue as expected, there is potential from emerging and developing economies such as Brazil, and some other countries in S. America, India, Russia and countries in the Middle East that may be weak but are expected to improve and eventually offset China's slowdown. (Note: All figures concern Dry Bulk vessels > 20,000dwt)
By Theodore Ntalakos
Newbuildings/SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL PRICES SET TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE UNTIL 2016 DUE TO OVER SUPPLY GLUT; H1 '16 COAL SWAPS DOWN 13% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
NEGATIVE 2016 OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN STEEL - SAYS FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: European steel in 2016 are both negative for the sector and for issuer ratings.
This reflects our expectation that import levels ...
Monday, 23 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: NET FLEET GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN, AS SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO ALLEVIATING MARKET MELTDOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been in “meltdown” mode for a few weeks now, unable to find support and avoid the fall in historical lows. As s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CS50 COAL INDEX CLOSED AT $40.27 PER TON; FELL 0.15% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5700 GAR CS (i) coal index fell by US cents 3 per ton week over week on 20 November 2015. CS 57 (5700 GAR coal) index closed at U ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL FURTHER ON LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.75 (13.99%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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