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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 March 16
CAN BULKCARRIER SUPPLY CUTS RESTORE SOME BALANCE? - CLARKSONS
The easing in bulkcarrier deliveries and the accelerated pace of demolition in recent years has seen bulkcarrier fleet growth slow from a rapid 17% ...
Monday, 29 February 16
BALTIC INDEX INCHES UP THIS PAST WEEK AS SMALLER VESSELS LEND SUPPORT
COALspot.com: The freight markets rose slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of global ...
Monday, 29 February 16
LOSS OF EARNINGS IN THE WAKE OF A COLLISION - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A shipowner’s loss of earnings can form a significant part of a collision claim. Awareness of the ways of calculati ...
Friday, 26 February 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 25 February 16
DRY BULKERS ARE SCRAPPED AT RECORD PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The newbuilding market is at a lull these days, as ship owners are focusing on two fronts, getting rid of excess dry bulk tonnage and snapping up b ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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