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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 19 February 16
INDONESIAN HBA HITS A NEW LOWS BELOW $51 A TON AS OVERSUPPLY, LOW DEMAND WOES PERSIST
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016. HBA has slumped second time t ...
Friday, 19 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 2.6% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.2 million shor ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
INDIA NEEDS INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT ON HIGH EFFICIENCY COAL - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
Speaking at a conference in New Delhi today, World Coal Association Chief Executive Benjamin Sporton said the critical role of coal in driving econ ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
CHINA COAL SECTOR - 2015 RESULTS BLEAK, 2016 UNLIKELY TO BE ANY BETTER - FITCH
COALspot.com: China Coal Sector’s Financial Woes to Worsen in 2016.
Fitch Ratings says that the 2015 full-year result previews issued by ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
PANAMAX RATES OUT OF ECSA WERE STILL GAINING A PREMIUM OVER THE REST OF THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The BDI moved further down last week, fact that hardly took anyone by surprise as the lunar year holidays in Asia on top of the already depre ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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