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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 February 16
HOW IS THE FUEL MIX FOR U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION CHANGING? - EIA
In recent years, there have been changes in the mix of fuels used to generate electricity in the United States. Natural gas and renewable energy so ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS LOOKING TO EXIT SHIPPING, MOST NOTABLY DRY BULK, AS OVERORDERING HAS RESULTED IN EXCESS TONNAGE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The injection of more than $13 billion in shipping from various private equity funds over the past few years has resulted in what many feared would ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
THIRTEEN - NOT ALWAYS AN UNLUCKY NUMBER? - CLARKSONS
Back in early 1999 the price of a 5 year old Panamax bulkcarrier dipped to $13.5m, and ever since analysts have hailed purchase decisions made at t ...
Monday, 22 February 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX SETTLES AT $27.02, DOWN 0.07% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.17 percent week over week to averaging $38.89 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 22 February 16
FREIGHT MARKETS PICKED UP SLIGHTLY THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight markets picked up slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of gl ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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