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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 March 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX DECLINE $0.05 A TON WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $38.66 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 07 March 16
FREIGHT MARKET MOVING POSITIVE; ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT CAPE SHOWING A FIRM TREND
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady this past week and showing a firm trend for all segments except for Cape index.
The Baltic Dry Ind ...
Friday, 04 March 16
GLOBAL ECONOMY'S JITTERS ARE SLOWING DOWN SHIPPING EVEN FURTHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The global economy’s shaky condition to say the least is now hampering growth and as a result demand for shipping is slowing down, something ...
Friday, 04 March 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 109.3 MMST; 30.2% LOWER THAN THE COMPARABLE YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION IN 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 03 March 16
INDIA'S BUDGET NOT ENOUGH TO BOOST STEELMAKERS' PROFITABILITY - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that increase in proposed infrastructure spending in India's latest government budget is unlikely to provide a ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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