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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 10 March 16
IT FEELS SAFE TO SAY THAT THE MARKET IS SLOWLY AND PAINFULLY REGAINING ITS BALANCE
With the BDI marking its third consecutive positive weekly closing, it feels safe to say that the market is regaining its balance; slowly and painf ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 24% (74 MMST) IN 2015; COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 111 MMST IN 2016 - EIA
U.S. Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production for February 2016 was 54 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (7%) decrease from the prev ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
RI MAY HAVE TO IMPORT COAL FOR FUTURE POWER PLANTS: STUDY - THE JAKARTA POST
With coal prices continuing to decline, Indonesia will struggle to provide the coal needed to fire up its power stations in the near future, a stud ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
INDONESIA HIKES COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 12 MONTHS
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016, but up slightly in Mar ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
THE DRY CARGO MARKET ENDURED ONE OF ITS MOST DIFFICULT YEARS IN 2015, EXPERIENCING LOWS NOT SEEN SINCE THE MID 1980S - CLARKSONS
Whilst shipping and offshore markets have seen some good opportunities during 2015, overall there have been unprecedented challenges, so we are ver ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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