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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 15 March 16
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.78 MMT OF COAL IN FEBRUARY 2016
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped AU$1,110.5 mi ...
Tuesday, 15 March 16
ADARO ENERGY LOWERED ITS COAL CASH COST BY 16% TO US$ 27.98 PER TONE IN 2015
Difficult Coal Market Condition Persists in 2015, Adaro Lowers Costs, Reduces Capital Spending and Maintains Solid Liquidity.
PT Adaro E ...
Monday, 14 March 16
THE CS 50 INDEX ROSE $0.16 OR, 0.41% TO $38.82 A TON
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.41 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
Monday, 14 March 16
THE BALTIC EXCHANGE CONTINUED TO ROSE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rise this week helped by higher rates for pa ...
Saturday, 12 March 16
PLN, COAL COMPANIES IN TALKS ABOUT PRICES - THE JAKARTA POST
Following a study that predicted that Indonesia would struggle to provide coal for its power stations in the near future, the government will facil ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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