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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
 I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dwt, blt ‘11 HHI) to Diana for approximately $28.4m, brought us face to face with the harsh reality once again; values are down by at least 20% since mid-August.
What I found extremely interesting is a new rhetoric which is being created by seasoned professionals that, 7 years after the Lehman collapse, this is the first time we are experiencing a proper shipping crisis. Now that the dust from the financial crisis has settled, capital markets are showing resistance to worldwide political turbulence and financial institutions are nearing the end of their challenge named Basel III, our industry has no alibi in still blaming China or other developing economies for not continuing to outperform expectations. The pundits that still maintain their memories from the 80’s fresh are having a strong “Deja-vu” driven by an enormous order book. Low scrapping activity in 2H 2015 -when compared to current freight rates and pending regulatory reforms further underlines the issue.
But this is all known and extensively documented. Too much ink has been wasted in analyzing, if not dramatizing, the market situation across all sizes. Things are bleak but repeating it doesn’t help solve the problem. There must be a reaction trigger point and when it comes to asset values, that point should be connected to the replacement cost compare to the value of an existing asset; i.e. the moment that buying a modern vessel is a no-brainer because building a new one is uneconomical in every which way you look at it…
The same players recalled that during the bleakest of times, one could purchase a 5yr old vessel for 35-40% of its NB price. No matter how shocking that statement sounds, reading through the new format of our research team’s monthly report, one can easily realize we are not far off that reaction point. As Tier III regulations are applied on every contract being negotiated henceforth, we expect to see at least a 6 month period where even the keenest buyers will follow a “wait and see” tactic towards the new technologies, engines, etc. and NB cost will increase by almost 10% which will shift the curve to levels witnessed almost 30 years ago.
What happened back then?
Well, last time we saw such a discrepancy in NB costs compare to 5yr old values, there was significant disinvestment in NB’s over a prolonged period, which was further intensified by higher scrap volumes and the gradual implementation of a series of regulations, which raised the cost of maintenance and drove even more vessels out of the market.
Does it ring any bells?
By George Dermatis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 11 March 16
ADANI GLOBAL BAGS 0.26 MILLION TONS OF COAL CONTRACT FROM LANKA COAL COMPANY
COALspot.com: Lanka Coal Company (Private) Limited, Sri Lanka has awarded 260,000 +/- 10% tons of Power plant 6300 GAR calorific value coal to Adan ...
Friday, 11 March 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN BY 0.5 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.6 million shor ...
Friday, 11 March 16
FORTESCUE'S MOU WITH VALE COULD STRENGTHEN ITS BUSINESS PROFILE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that Australia-based Fortescue Metals Group Limited's (BB+/Negative) memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Br ...
Thursday, 10 March 16
CHINA'S NEW POLICY PLAN COULD BE POSITIVE FOR SHIPPING, BUT TARGETS SEEM RATHER AMBITIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China set out its new policy plan during the course of the past weekend, but it seems to have set some very ambitious goals, which could be difficu ...
Thursday, 10 March 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 23% IN 2015, AS COAL IMPORTS REMAINED STEADY
COALspot.com: The United States remains a net exporter of coal, exporting 74.0 million short tons (MMst) and importing 11 MMst in 2015.
Accord ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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