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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 28 January 16
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS FOR COAL IN LIGHT OF THE PARIS CLIMATE AGREEMENT? - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
This depends – says the VDKi – to a very great extent on who you want to believe more, the United Nations or the International Energy A ...
Thursday, 28 January 16
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FOR Q1,Q2 AND Q3 DELIVERIES FIRM THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap rose month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards Bay Coa ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS CLOSE MIXED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $1.17 per ton (3.13%) this past week compared to the sam ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
CHINA'S STALLING ECONOMY HAS HAD A GREAT EFFECT ON VARIOUS COMMODITIES; DECREASED DEMAND DRIVING COMMODITY PRICES LOWER AND LOWER - LINOS ALEXANDROS KOGEVINAS
Having gone through the first few weeks of 2016, it’s starting to look like another challenging year is ahead of us. Hopes for a recovery in ...
Wednesday, 27 January 16
WORLD HARD COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION DECLINE IN 2015 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A DECADE - VDKI
COALspot.com: Seaborne hard coal trade and the changes in this area were decisively affected by China and India - VDKi.
China bears the g ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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