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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 26 January 16
Q3'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DROPPED BELOW $41 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.82 (1.94%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Tuesday, 26 January 16
OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - OPEC SECRETARY GENERAL
Opening address by HE Abdalla S. El-Badri, OPEC Secretary General, at the Chatham House Conference: Middle East and North Africa Energy 2016, Theme ...
Monday, 25 January 16
5700 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSED $ 50.08 PER TON, $0.20 LOWER FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 1.35 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 25 January 16
SHOULD A DEFAULTING PARTY BE ENTITLED TO AN INNOCENT PARTY'S SAVING, FOLLOWING THEIR BREACH OF CONTRACT? - THE NEW FLAMENCO REVISITED
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This case was addressed by the club in our of January 2015, when the High Court decision became available. The background ...
Monday, 25 January 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING: A MISERABLE START TO A NEW YEAR, WHERE THE MARKET STRUGGLES TO GROW AT ALL - BIMCO
The global production of steel dropped in 2015 compared to 2014, to a larger extent outside China, as China exported its surplus of steel to destin ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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