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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 24 January 16
PANAMAX MARKET WEAKENS ACROSS THE BOARD
COALspot.com: The Baltic Dry Index, which gauges the cost of shipping dry bulk including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, fell ninetee ...
Friday, 22 January 16
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million shor ...
Friday, 22 January 16
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and week over week. The falling trend of prices for coal was continuing ...
Friday, 22 January 16
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 40.80; DECLINE $ 2.80 M-O-M
COALspot.com: Q1’ 2016 API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap up month over month and decline week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 FOB Richards B ...
Wednesday, 20 January 16
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 2.40 LESSER THAN Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 38.10
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose another $0.77 per ton (2.06%) this past week compared to the sam ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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