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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 February 16
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIAN TO CHINA HAS BEEN CONCLUDED AT US$ 2.85 PMT AND THE C3 MARKET REMAINS INACTIVE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
As everyone is getting ready for the Chinese new year, already depressed rates are under further pressure.
According to Fearnleys, ...
Wednesday, 03 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET CONTINUES TO BE UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market continues to be under pressure, with the BDI remaining in search of even the slightest support, which seems to be delaying more ...
Tuesday, 02 February 16
RECORD EXPORTS THROUGH SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL MADE AT EXPENSE OF SMALLER RIVALS, IHS SAYS
Five percent increase in coal exports through South Africa’s dominant Richards Bay Coal Terminal in 2015 unlikely to accelerate country&rsquo ...
Tuesday, 02 February 16
SETTING ASIDE, STRIKING OUT AND APPEALS TO THE COURT OF APPEAL IN SHIP ARRESTS - RAJAH & TANN ASIA LLP
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Singapore Court of Appeal once again has had to grapple with ship arrest, setting aside and appeals to the Court unde ...
Monday, 01 February 16
DRY BULK SUFFERS FROM POSEIDON'S POTENT PRONGS - CLARKSONS
It has been a grim start to 2016 for the bulkcarrier market, with the Baltic Dry Index sliding to new record lows on almost every day of the year s ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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