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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 12 February 16
DRY BULK MARKET'S FORTUNES STILL TIED WITH CHINA'S ECONOMY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The inevitable slowdown of the Chinese economy was expected to hurt dry bulk shipping, but few expected the blow to be this hard, especially given ...
Friday, 12 February 16
COAL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE 13% IN 2016 TO $50 ATON, ON CONTINUED WEAK DEMAND AND OVERSUPPLY - WORLD BANK
COALspot.com: Thermal coal prices fell 9 percent in the fourth quarter on continued weak demand, high stocks, and surplus production, World Bank sa ...
Friday, 12 February 16
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION OFF 5.4% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12.9 million shor ...
Thursday, 11 February 16
GLOBAL NEWBUILDING ORDERBOOK IS SHRINKING ON A DAILY BASIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2016 has started right where 2015 left off when it comes to newbuilding ordering activity, i.e. there are slim pickings to be had from shipyards ar ...
Wednesday, 10 February 16
SOUTH AFRICA IS HOPING TO SHIP MORE COAL TO INDIA IN 2016
COALspot.com: South Africa is hoping to boost coal exports to India after shipping a record 75.4 million tonnes of coal in 2015, industry officials ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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