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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 19 February 16
INDONESIAN HBA HITS A NEW LOWS BELOW $51 A TON AS OVERSUPPLY, LOW DEMAND WOES PERSIST
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016. HBA has slumped second time t ...
Friday, 19 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 2.6% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.2 million shor ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
INDIA NEEDS INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT ON HIGH EFFICIENCY COAL - WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION
Speaking at a conference in New Delhi today, World Coal Association Chief Executive Benjamin Sporton said the critical role of coal in driving econ ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
CHINA COAL SECTOR - 2015 RESULTS BLEAK, 2016 UNLIKELY TO BE ANY BETTER - FITCH
COALspot.com: China Coal Sector’s Financial Woes to Worsen in 2016.
Fitch Ratings says that the 2015 full-year result previews issued by ...
Thursday, 18 February 16
PANAMAX RATES OUT OF ECSA WERE STILL GAINING A PREMIUM OVER THE REST OF THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The BDI moved further down last week, fact that hardly took anyone by surprise as the lunar year holidays in Asia on top of the already depre ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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