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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 24 February 16
HOW IS THE FUEL MIX FOR U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION CHANGING? - EIA
In recent years, there have been changes in the mix of fuels used to generate electricity in the United States. Natural gas and renewable energy so ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS LOOKING TO EXIT SHIPPING, MOST NOTABLY DRY BULK, AS OVERORDERING HAS RESULTED IN EXCESS TONNAGE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The injection of more than $13 billion in shipping from various private equity funds over the past few years has resulted in what many feared would ...
Wednesday, 24 February 16
THIRTEEN - NOT ALWAYS AN UNLUCKY NUMBER? - CLARKSONS
Back in early 1999 the price of a 5 year old Panamax bulkcarrier dipped to $13.5m, and ever since analysts have hailed purchase decisions made at t ...
Monday, 22 February 16
4200 GAR COAL INDEX SETTLES AT $27.02, DOWN 0.07% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.17 percent week over week to averaging $38.89 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 22 February 16
FREIGHT MARKETS PICKED UP SLIGHTLY THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight markets picked up slightly this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of gl ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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