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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 March 16
BDI FURTHER STRENGTHENING; THE INCREASE IN RATES WAS NOT SUBSTANTIAL
COALspot.com: The BDI closed off on a positive note for a second week in a row, further strengthening the belief that the market might be bottoming ...
Thursday, 03 March 16
RIO TINTO COMPLETES SALE OF INTEREST IN BENGALLA JOINT VENTURE FOR US$616.7 MILLION
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto has completed the sale of its 40 per cent interest in the Bengalla coal Joint Venture in Australia to New Hope Corporation ...
Wednesday, 02 March 16
RE-EVALUATION OF MINING LICENSES CLEAN AND CLEAR STATUS IN INDONESIA
COALspot.com: In connection with the transfer of mining authority from Regents/Mayors to Governors1 and from Regents/Mayors and Governors to t ...
Wednesday, 02 March 16
OIL MY GOD.....!!!!
OIL my GOD….!!!!
The oil price “crash” that started in 2014 was caused by a glut of practically unwanted oil. Producers had be ...
Tuesday, 01 March 16
CS 42 (4200 GAR) COAL INDEX CLOSED AT US$ 27.11 A TON ON 26 FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.31 percent week over week to averaging $38.77 per ton on this past Friday, ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
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