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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 10 March 16
IT FEELS SAFE TO SAY THAT THE MARKET IS SLOWLY AND PAINFULLY REGAINING ITS BALANCE
With the BDI marking its third consecutive positive weekly closing, it feels safe to say that the market is regaining its balance; slowly and painf ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 24% (74 MMST) IN 2015; COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 111 MMST IN 2016 - EIA
U.S. Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production for February 2016 was 54 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (7%) decrease from the prev ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
RI MAY HAVE TO IMPORT COAL FOR FUTURE POWER PLANTS: STUDY - THE JAKARTA POST
With coal prices continuing to decline, Indonesia will struggle to provide the coal needed to fire up its power stations in the near future, a stud ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
INDONESIA HIKES COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 12 MONTHS
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016, but up slightly in Mar ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
THE DRY CARGO MARKET ENDURED ONE OF ITS MOST DIFFICULT YEARS IN 2015, EXPERIENCING LOWS NOT SEEN SINCE THE MID 1980S - CLARKSONS
Whilst shipping and offshore markets have seen some good opportunities during 2015, overall there have been unprecedented challenges, so we are ver ...
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Showing 2531 to 2535 news of total 6871 |
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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