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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 07 March 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX DECLINE $0.05 A TON WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $38.66 per ton on this past Friday, ...
Monday, 07 March 16
FREIGHT MARKET MOVING POSITIVE; ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT CAPE SHOWING A FIRM TREND
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady this past week and showing a firm trend for all segments except for Cape index.
The Baltic Dry Ind ...
Friday, 04 March 16
GLOBAL ECONOMY'S JITTERS ARE SLOWING DOWN SHIPPING EVEN FURTHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The global economy’s shaky condition to say the least is now hampering growth and as a result demand for shipping is slowing down, something ...
Friday, 04 March 16
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 109.3 MMST; 30.2% LOWER THAN THE COMPARABLE YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION IN 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 03 March 16
INDIA'S BUDGET NOT ENOUGH TO BOOST STEELMAKERS' PROFITABILITY - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that increase in proposed infrastructure spending in India's latest government budget is unlikely to provide a ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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