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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctively invest when asset values are low.
Although for a traditional ship-owner, buying a ship and supporting the investment for a period of time is part of being a ship-owner, these days the billion dollar question is "For how long would they have to do so?"
So far, 2015 is more bearish than 2012 which, for the most of us, was perceived as the previous low. When comparing the two, a big difference is that this year there is limited, if any, ordering in the Dry Bulk sector, which means that the industry has probably learned from past mistakes.
If we look at the Panamax / Kamsarmax sector, in 2012 the average BPI was at 963 points compared to the up to date average of 738 point in 2015. In dollar terms for the segment, the average TCA for 2012 was $7,700/day vs $5,900/day this year. SnP data for such ships built post 2000 in Korean and Japanese yards is not aligning with the respective freight trend though. In 2012 there were a total of 23 sales compared to an almost double of 44 transactions reported in the first nine months of 2015.
Another significant difference is that this year the majority of the buyers are traditional and experienced ship-owners, who see this downward spiral of the rates and prices as the right opportunity to invest. Back in 2012 a lot of equity funds, and in general non-traditional financial vehicles were entering and investing in either newbuilding or second hand assets.
Right after the bottom of 2012 we saw an increase on second hand transactions during 2013, which has been the highest up until this year. 2013 also had the highest BPI average and the highest TCA. In the end, the 2013 optimism proved short lived as in 2014 the market started to drop again leading to a small decline in sales for that year. Now what’s interesting in 2015, is that with the lowest BPI and TCA of the 4 year period, it looks like that by the end of it the number of transaction will surpass that of 2013.
Some might say that asset prices will drop further and that potential buyers should wait a bit longer. But let’s be honest; at the price levels we are seeing today, ships are already being priced low. Now if one is worried that by investing now they could miss on a potential additional discount of a 2-3% that might take place down the line, it’s their right to do so. The reality of the situation however, remains the same. When the market is low, investing makes sense. And it seems that people with the most experience out there are doing exactly that.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 10 February 16
OWNERS APPEAR WILLING TO DISPOSE OF TONNAGE THE SOONEST IT HITS THE 10 YEAR MARK - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
COALspot.com: The last two months of 2015 made a case for traditional shipowners to invest in the dry bulk sector, doing so though based purely on ...
Monday, 08 February 16
DRY-BULK SHIPPING DIVING DEEP
COALspot.com: The freight markets continued to fall this past week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of dry-bulk shipping freights, a measure of glo ...
Monday, 08 February 16
DRY BULK: SHIPBROKER SEES BDI MARKET REACHING LOW POINT OF 236 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The endless pit that is the dry bulk market over the past two months, has been the issue of debate among ship owners, shipbroker and analysts alike ...
Friday, 05 February 16
COAL INDIA EYES COAL MINES IN SOUTH AFRICA - PTI
“Coal India Ltd has plans of acquiring coal mines in South Africa,” an official said. It is looking at acquiring mines in partnership w ...
Friday, 05 February 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ROSE 4.2% TO 13.6 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.6 million shor ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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