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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 21 July 15
CHINA'S ENERGY COMMODITY IMPORTS DIVERGING - RICHARD SCOTT | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Energy commodity imports into China have grown enormously over the past decade, boosting global demand for shipping capacity. But a dramatic change ...
Tuesday, 21 July 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS EXTEND LOSS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week. The swaps was lost 0.70%.
...
Tuesday, 21 July 15
Q4'15 FOB RBCT COAL SWAP DECLINES NEARLY 3.13 PER CENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 20 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SEE FURTHER DECLINES
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.32 per MT (-2.89%) month over month to US$ 44.43 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 20 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.18 (2.27%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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