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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 28 July 15
INDONESIA DELAYS PLAN TO RAISE COAL ROYALTIES AMID PLUNGING PRICE - JP
The government will postpone a plan to increase royalty payments from coal miners as they are already burdened with the commodity’s plunging ...
Tuesday, 28 July 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP LOST M-M AND GAINED W-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.15 per MT (-2.51%) month over month to US$ 44.62 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 27 July 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR TOTAL 545,000 MT OF COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to purchase total 545,000 Metric Tons (MT) of coal ...
Monday, 27 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP WEAK M/M; FIRM W/W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.92 (1.77%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 26 July 15
INDO-INDIA OCEAN COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN STEADY
COALspot.com: The freight market continued lost steam towards end of the week and all indices were showing downward trend.
The BDI was up by 3 ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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