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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 31 July 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP 3.6% FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 25
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.8 million shor ...
Friday, 31 July 15
CHINA'S NEW OIL IMPORT RULES HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON STATUS QUO - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says that China's looser criteria for crude oil import rights are a positive but modest step towards encouraging private-sector p ...
Thursday, 30 July 15
EFFECTS OF THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET CRISIS - INTERMODAL
All evidence is currently signaling that the Chinese stock market will be the newest hurdle for the global economy. With the world's second lar ...
Wednesday, 29 July 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and gains week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was decl ...
Wednesday, 29 July 15
Q4' 15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINE 4.41% TO $56.52 PMT
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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