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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 16 July 15
INDONESIA'S HBA HITS ALL-TIME LOW OF $59.16 PER METRIC TON IN JULY 2015
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.16 pe ...
Thursday, 16 July 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINE W-O-W, M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The last few weeks have been rather strenuous for Greece and China, each for their own reasons, affecting most markets around the world. In Greece ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
IRAN OIL RECOVERY TO TAKE YEARS, BUT COULD START IN 2016 - FITCH
Iranian crude oil production is likely to increase in 2016 but will take a number of years to reach its previous peak, Fitch Ratings says.
The ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
SAS TO BUILD 108 KM ROAD FOR COAL IN JAMBI, SAYS JAKARTA POST
Jambi Governor Hasan Basri Agus said on Sunday that mining company PT Sinar Anugerah Sukses (SAS) would develop a 108-kilometer road with a width o ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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