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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 May 15
SOUTH KOREAN STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 780K MT OF COAL FOR H2' 15
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 780K Metric Tons (MT) of HCV and LCV ...
Thursday, 28 May 15
TIMEBAR FOR DEMURRAGE CLAIMS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
English law has traditionally had a strict approach to contractually agreed time bars between commercial parties as well ...
Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the fallin ...
Tuesday, 26 May 15
HOW HAS THE DROP IN OIL PRICES AFFECTED OTHER COMMODITIES? - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The effects of the dramatic drop in the price of both Ice March Brent, the international oil marker, and its US counterpa ...
Tuesday, 26 May 15
MINING ASSOCIATION PERHAPI PUSHES FOR 35,000 MEGAWATT ELECTRICITY PROGRAM - JG
The Indonesian Mining Professionals Association, or Perhapi, has announced its support for a 35,000-megawatt national electricity program, saying i ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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