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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 01 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.36 per MT (0.80%) month over month. The swap was closed at US$ ...
Monday, 01 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-W, M-M; Q1'16 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.15 (2.26%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a f ...
Sunday, 31 May 15
CAPE AND PANAMAX SEGMENTS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: The BDI was up about 0.5 pct week on week and closed at 589 points while the cape index was fell 0.73 pct and closed at 810 po ...
Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodi ...
Friday, 29 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. ALMOST FLAT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million short ...
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- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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