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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 June 15
DRY BULK MARKET FAILED TO OFFER ANY POSITIVE SURPRISES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: This has been another week that the Dry Bulk market failed to offer any positive surprises, while the BDI, which is still faring belo ...
Wednesday, 03 June 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
For some time now the Dry Bulk market has been severely affected by China’s slowing GDP growth rate that occurs in the background of increase ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3 SWAP ADVANCED 1.73% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month and lost week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was climbed ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS; Q3'15 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1'16
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 up month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 0.80 (1 ...
Monday, 01 June 15
35,000 MW POWER PLANTS TO BOOST COAL CONSUMPTION - JP
The government’s program to develop 35,000 megawatt (MW) power plants will increase domestic coal consumption, which currently stands at arou ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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