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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 June 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
As we go through the end of the 2nd quarter of the year it is evident that the tanker shipping markets have been rewarding and definitely been show ...
Wednesday, 10 June 15
WORLD COAL MARKET HEADING TO NEW EQUILIBRIUM: MINISTER - JAKARTA POST
Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Sudirman Said has said the world’s coal market is heading towards a new balance, which will make Indone ...
Wednesday, 10 June 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ROSE W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was climbed by $ ...
Tuesday, 09 June 15
GLOBALCOAL IMPLEMENTS VOLUMETRIC SIZE LIMITS IN RICHARDS BAY MARKET
COALspot.com: globalCOAL today announced that following recent market consultation, it will limit bids, offers and trades in the fixed price Phys R ...
Tuesday, 09 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINED M-O-M, W-O-W
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was fell US$ ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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