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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 15 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: ROSE M-O-M; DECLINED W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.43 (2.82%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 14 June 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET FINISHED THE WEEK UP COMPARED TO LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market finished the week up compared to last week. All the segments except for Cape index were up. Cape segment was ...
Friday, 12 June 15
EXPECTATIONS IN REGARDS TO THE SUMMER SEASON VARY ACROSS THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market closed off last slightly up last week, with the BDI re-gaining the 600 points level, while the driving force behind the increas ...
Friday, 12 June 15
U.S. PRODUCED 15.1 MMST OF COAL THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short ...
Thursday, 11 June 15
IS COAL INDUSTRY GOING TO HIT A BRICK WALL?
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.59 per MT fo ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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