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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 19 June 15
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO LAST WEEK; CONTINUES TO BE DOWN FROM LAST YEAR
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.4 million short ...
Friday, 19 June 15
INDONESIA'S COAL-TRAFFICKING PROBLEM REQUIRES IMPARTIAL INQUIRY - JAKARTA GLOBE
Indonesia, the leading supplier to the seaborne thermal coal market, produces 420 million tons of coal per year, according to its official tally.
...
Thursday, 18 June 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: LOWEST FLEET GROWTH IN 10 YEARS MAY NOT PROVE ENOUGH AS DEMAND IS NOT KEEPING PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The demand side of things in the dry bulk market seems unable to keep pace with even the slightest fleet growth, a sign of the demise that the indu ...
Thursday, 18 June 15
THE FAR EAST HANDYSIZE, HANDYMAX, SUPRAMAX MARKET REMAINED STEADY LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on Friday (last week) noting small gains on the back of stronger performance in the Panamax segment, w ...
Thursday, 18 June 15
MERCATOR'S KAMSARMAX FIXED WITH CLEARLAKE
COALspot.com: Mercator Lines (Singapore) Limited, a leading Indian-owned international dry bulk shipping company focused on markets such as India, ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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