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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 June 15
PANAMAX RATE AVERAGED $22.82 PMT IN THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF JUNE FOR THE GRAIN ROUTE FROM SANTOS, BRAZIL, TO QINGDAO, CHINA - INTERMODAL
This year, Brazil will be exporting a record 96 million tons of soybean crop and starting in August the country will begin shipping a second corn c ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
MERS: POTENTIAL CHARTERPARTY IMPLICATIONS - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
South Korea's current outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) has been the focus of much international at ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
Q3 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP PRICE DOWN 50 CENTS OVER PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month but declined week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was clim ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: PRICES MOVED UP ON THE WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 rose month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 1.70 ...
Monday, 15 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP: Q1'16 DELIVERY CLOSED 1.14% LOWER THAN Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 1.10 per MT (2.47%) month over month to US$ 45.67 per mt. The swap ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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